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Irish consumer spending to rise this year on back of strong growth

Retail Ireland have today published their latest quarterly Retail Monitor. It highlights the return to growth in the sector during 2015.

The Retail Monitor points to significant potential in the sector, at a time when the country is showing the highest GDP growth levels in the EU. The group estimates consumer spending will rise by 4.4% in 2016, following growth of 3.7% last year.

A key factor supporting further recovery over the coming months will be an increase in the numbers at work by 50,000.

The recent dramatic fall in oil prices will also boost consumer spending power. This positive performance in 2015 was supplemented by a strong Christmas trading period which saw sales rise by 3% on the same period in 2014.

The data indicates that consumers look set to benefit from yet another year of low inflation, with intense competition keeping prices down. The group estimates overall inflation in the economy will be less than 1% this year. In 2015 goods prices fell by 3.8% in the full year as shops discounted their products heavily in a battle for footfall.

For more on this article, please visit: Business World

Irish consumer sentiment at a fifteen year high

New data suggests that Irish consumer sentiment climbed to a fifteen year high in January as increasing optimism about household finances more than outweighed a slightly more cautious view of Irish economic prospects.

This is according to KBC Bank Ireland/ESRI Consumer Sentiment Index for January 2016 which was released yesterday. The index rose to 108.6 last month from 103.9 in December (which itself was a ten year high), taking it to its strongest level since February 2001.

Details of the January Irish sentiment survey suggests that Irish consumers were not blind to worries about the health of the global economy.

However, it appears these were more than offset by growing optimism in relation to their personal finances.  A clear sense of caution in relation to the broad economic environment  can be seen in a weakening in both elements of the survey that relate to ‘macro’ conditions compared to their December readings.

Sharply contrasting signals in relation to  economic prospects may be weighing on consumer thinking but there is still considerable confidence that 2016 will be a good one for the Irish economy.

While marginally down on the corresponding data for December, the January survey still shows that 62% of consumers envisage a stronger Irish economy in the next twelve months and only 13% expect weaker conditions.

For more on this article, please visit: Business World

Growth of Irish consumer spending accelerates at start of 2016

The latest Visa Europe Irish Consumer Spending Index has been released today. It shows there was no slowdown in consumer expenditure in January after a year-on-year increase of +7.2% was recorded during the month across all payment methods.

This was faster than the increase of +6.5% seen in December and the second-sharpest expansion since the series began in September 2014 (just behind November 2015’s record).

The data shows that Irish consumers continued to increase their spending via eCommerce at a strong pace in January.

There was a larger increase in face-to-face expenditure in January than seen at the end of the year, with the rate of expansion accelerating to +5.6%. This was the second-sharpest growth rate since the series began.

Consumer spending has been helped by higher wages and reduced unemployment. Wages rose 2.7% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2015, while the rate of unemployment is at 8.6%, the lowest since the end of 2008.

Growth in consumer spending was recorded across each of the sectors covered in January, with the fastest increase again in Recreation & Culture. The sector registered a considerable expansion of +14.7%.

Furthermore, increased consumer spending on leisure activities in January was highlighted by a double-digit expansion in spending in the Hotels, Restaurants & Bars category (+12.2%). The Transport & Communication sector was boosted by +7.8% growth, with car sales proving to be a key factor.

For more on this article, please visit: Business World

Numbers on Live Register down 10.3% in year to January

The number of people signing on the Live Register fell by 1.5 per cent last month and was down by 10.3 per cent on an annual basis, according to new figures from the Central Statistics Office (CSO).

The data show there were 4,800 fewer people on the register in January, reducing the overall total to 323,200. On a seasonal basis there were 36,870 fewer people on the Live Register.

According to the latest figures, there were 3,500 fewer men and 1,200 fewer women signing on in January. This represents a decrease of 1.8 per cent and 0.9 per cent respectively.

The number of male claimants fell by 26,922 or 12.3 per cent to 191,756 in the year to January, while the number of female claimants fell by 9,948 or 7.1 per cent to 130,046.

The number of young people aged under 25 continues to fall as it has in all months since July 2010. At the end of January there were 12.4 per cent of young people in that age category on the Live Register as against 13.7 per cent in January 2015 and 15.1 per cent for the same month a year earlier.

Long-term claimants on the Live Register fell by 11.8 per cent on an annual basis to 19,389. The number of male and female claimants declined by 14.5 per cent and 6.5 per cent respectively over the year.

The latest figures show there were 65,270 casual and part-time workers on the Live Register in January, equivalent to 20.3 per cent of the total numbers signing on. This compares with 20.1 per cent a year earlier when there were 72,085 casual and part-time claimants.

The Live Register includes part-time, seasonal and casual workers who are entitled to jobseekers benefit or allowance.

CSO began publishing a new series of monthly unemployment estimates in June 2015. The latest figures, published earlier this week, put the State’s jobless rate at 8.6 per cent for January.

Article Source: Irish Times

Ireland’s economy will continue to grow at the fastest rate in the EU this year

Ireland’s economy will continue to grow at the fastest rate in the EU this year, a performance that the bloc’s economics chief has called “brilliant and balanced”.

According to economic forecasts released yesterday by the European Commission, Ireland’s economy will expand by 4.5pc this year, more than twice the EU average.

The strong performance is based on increased consumer spending and a boost in investment. Net exports – the difference between exports and imports – contracted last year and will remain close to zero next year, the EU predicts.

GDP growth was 6.9pc in 2015, the Commission said, an upward revision of almost an entire percentage point on its November forecast.

However, growth will slow to 3.5pc in 2017, with Luxembourg and Romania overtaking Ireland as the fastest-growing economies in the bloc.

Job creation has also continued in Ireland, the Commission said, with unemployment expected to fall from 9.4pc in 2015 to 8.5pc this year and 7.8pc next year – well below the EU and euro-area average.

The budget deficit will drop from 1.8pc of GDP in 2015 to 1.3pc of GDP this year on the back of a higher than expected tax take at the end of last year, falling to 0.8pc of GDP in 2017, the Commission predicts.

Irish inflation will remain close to the euro-area average, rising from zero last year to 0.6pc this year and 1.4pc next year. The Commission says risks to Ireland’s growth forecast could come from a deterioration in the external environment, an interest rate shock or changes in the operations of multinationals, which transferred a record number of patents to Ireland in 2015 and are likely to book more profits in the country as a result.

Ireland’s performance far outstrips the rest of Europe, where Greece remains in recession this year, though it is not as severe as the Commission was predicting in its last forecast.

The EU as a whole will grow by 1.9pc this year and 2pc next year, after expanding by 1.9pc last year, the Commission said, an upward revision of its previous forecast.

Falling oil prices, low interest rates and a weaker euro are shoring up the bloc’s economy but a slowdown in emerging markets could pose a threat to the recovery, the Commission warned.

Fears over the surge of migrants entering the EU and further border clampdowns could also endanger confidence and disrupt growth, the forecast noted – though it did predict a short-term boost for growth from an increase in public spending to cope with the migrant influx.

For more on this article, please visit: Irish Independent

Almost a third of company owners are unsure of who to vote for in general election

BDO have today released findings from their quarterly poll of business leaders regarding election concerns.

The BDO Optimism index is a quarterly survey of 350 Irish Businesses.

It has been conducted every quarter for over six years by leading market researchers Behaviour and Attitudes. Respondents are all Business owners, CEO’s or leading Managers within the organisations.

When asked which political party best represents their needs, 31% of businesses said they were still undecided, and 14% said none of the parties. Thirty per cent of business owners said Fine Gael best addressed their business’ needs, Fianna Fáil 7%, Labour 2% and Sinn Fein 2%.

Eighty per cent of company owners said they would like to see the next government make changes to employee related taxes, with 78% saying the next government needs to improve Ireland’s infrastructure.

A total of 50% of all businesses surveyed said Brexit is issue, an increase from the 35% who raised the issue as a significant concern in the previous BDO poll during the summer of 2015.

Difficulty securing credit and funding from financial institutions is still a problem for business despite the upturn in the economy over the past number of years, with 56% of those surveyed saying they’d like to see the next government address the issue.

For more on this article, please visit: Business World